As the curtains fall on Friday night, the anticipation surrounding ‘Taylor Swift: Eras Tour’ has transformed into reality, delivering impressive results. The film has amassed an astounding $39 million on its opening day, ranking as the second-largest October debut ever, trailing only behind ‘The Joker’s’ $39.3 million in 2019. It’s highly probable that AMC will declare ‘Taylor Swift: Eras Tour’ as the top-grossing opening day for October when the final counts are in tomorrow.
While the opening day performance is remarkable, it has slightly adjusted the weekend projections, now ranging from $92 million to $105 million across 3,850 theaters. Even if the film lands on the higher end of the $90 million range, it remains a significant achievement for AMC and the industry. At $92 million, ‘Eras Tour’ would secure the second-highest domestic opening in October, just behind ‘Joker’s’ $96.2 million. Impressively, the film is showing a stronger Friday-to-Saturday retention rate compared to some female-oriented films like ‘Twilight’ (-41%), ‘Barbie’ (-32%), and ‘Sex and the City’ (-34%). Even at $92 million, it would still be the best debut for a concert film in the U.S. and Canada, despite the recent actors’ strike and promotional restrictions.
It’s worth noting that ‘Eras Tour’ is poised to claim the record for the largest opening ever for a film distributed by a theater chain. Furthermore, the film has earned a rare A+ rating from CinemaScore, placing it in the company of blockbuster hits like ‘Spider-Man: No Way Home,‘ ‘Black Panther,’ ‘Beauty and the Beast’ (1991), ‘Avengers: Endgame,’ ‘Titanic,‘ and ‘E.T.’ On top of that, the film has garnered an impressive Rotten Tomatoes audience score of 99%.
In other noteworthy developments, an interesting observation is that out of the top 100 theaters in presales, 98 are owned by AMC, surprising rival studio distribution executives. Additionally, boutique chain exhibitors are underperforming due to AMC’s early announcement, which has led moviegoers to believe that the only place to experience ‘Eras Tour’ is at an AMC theater. While the film is expected to perform consistently across the nation, large-format, PLF (premium large format), IMAX, and Dolby screens are anticipated to overachieve in major markets.
As a fun fact, ‘Eras Tour’ has outperformed the entire domestic cumulative earnings of some other Taylor Swift-starring films, such as ‘Cats’ ($27.1 million) and ‘Amsterdam’ ($14.9 million), although it falls just short of the domestic total of ‘The Giver’ ($45 million).
In the Friday afternoon update, it’s clear that the box office is in for an unpredictable weekend with ‘Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour’ concert movie. Friday’s box office earnings currently range from $40 million to $50 million, with weekend estimates ranging from $107 million to $130 million across 3,850 theaters.
On the optimistic side, this could potentially secure the film as the third-highest opening at the domestic box office in 2023, following ‘Barbie’ ($162 million) and ‘Super Mario Bros’ ($146.3 million) in their respective three-day openings. However, the industry remains cautious about these projections due to the unique dynamics of the film’s frontloaded presales and the uncertainty surrounding walk-up ticket sales. Moreover, the film predominantly appeals to a young, female audience, which typically experiences more significant drops on Saturday nights.
Critics on Rotten Tomatoes have bestowed the film with a perfect 100% rating, but official figures from AMC will only be available tomorrow. Early Screen Engine/Comscore PostTrak ratings from the initial showings, including $2.8 million in previews, reflect strong audience enthusiasm, with five-star ratings or 95% positive reviews.
In conclusion, ‘Eras Tour’ is making a significant impact at the box office, diverting attention away from other releases. Taylor Swift has undoubtedly made a grand entrance to the box office this weekend.
In the runner-up position for the weekend, Universal/Blumhouse/Morgan Creek’s ‘Exorcist: Believer,‘ playing at 3,684 locations, is expected to earn $11 million in its second weekend, with a 58% drop, bringing its ten-day total to $44.9 million. Paramount/Spin Master’s ‘Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie’ holds the third spot, with projected earnings of $5.7 million in its third weekend, a 50% drop, and a cumulative total of $48.5 million. Lionsgate’s ‘Saw X’ secures the fourth place, with earnings of $5.4 million in its third weekend, experiencing a 31% drop and a total cumulative of $41.1 million. New Regency/20th Century Studio’s ‘The Creator’ ranks fifth, grossing $3.3 million in its third weekend and reaching a cumulative total of $31.3 million across 2,960 theaters.
Earlier, AMC reported that ‘Taylor Swift: Eras Tour’ had earned $2.8 million in Thursday night previews, surpassing the estimated $5 million. The film was shown in 2,700 theaters, with showings commencing as early as 6 p.m. local time. It is important to note that these previews do not necessarily dictate the entire weekend’s performance. Projections of $100 million or more for the film across 3,855 theaters remain steadfast. Taylor Swift’s decision to shift the release date plan from Friday at 6 p.m. to Thursday night previews was a relatively last-minute move, and in some areas, advance tickets for the concert film were not available until just a few hours before showtime.
In a unique twist, Taylor Swift was also present at the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos game, attracting her dedicated fan base. This unique circumstance further complicates comparisons to previous box office releases.
It’s important to highlight that there are no direct comparisons for last night’s performance due to the last-minute addition of Thursday previews and the scarcity of wide-release concert movies in the modern box office era. Notably, the midnight showings of Michael Jackson’s concert documentary, ‘This Is It,’ brought in $2.2 million on its Tuesday night, October 27, 2009, before achieving $7.4 million on Wednesday and $34.4 million over five days.
The additional showtimes for ‘Eras Tour’ on Thursday did not significantly impact the overall performance of the autumn box office. Universal/Blumhouse/Morgan Creek’s ‘The Exorcist: Believer’ earned an estimated $1.3 million on the day, showing a 9% drop from Wednesday and bringing its first-week earnings to $33.9 million. Lionsgate’s ‘Saw X’ achieved $729,000 in earnings, marking a 1% increase from Wednesday and reaching $11.3 million in week 2.